It is funny how the universe delivers us all the right
things. Or perhaps it is just our penchant for recognizing patterns that
makes it seem so. In either case, it is remarkable how often the
signals come through the noise exactly when we need them to.
Only recently I began thinking how the outcries around
climate change and mass extinction were actually manifestations of a
greater longing, that of a need to transcend our previous modes of
social organization — tribes and kingdoms, empires and nation-states —
to create a new, planetary entente, one that treated the rest of life on
earth, not as competitors, but as fellow stakeholders in a common
enterprise.
Then I came across this:
“Such problems both require and provide opportunities for learning new ways of problem solving as a global society.”
It was in a paper titled “Carbon dioxide from fossil fuels” by Kan Chen, Richard C. Winter, and Michael K. Bergman, published December 1980 in the journal Energy Policy. I would never have known anything about it were it not for the fact that Google served a Scientific American article
that referenced it up to me. The first two sentences of the abstract
alone are enough to make one place their head in their hands and weep.
If present scientific information
is reasonable, the world is likely to experience noticeable global
warming by the beginning of the next century if high annual growth rates
of fossil fuel energy use continue. Only with optimistic assumptions
and low growth rates will carbon-dioxide-induced temperature increases
be held below 2°C or so over the next century.
I first heard the term ‘global warming’ in January 1990. We
were just pulling into the small town in northwestern Montana where I
grew up, having spent the holidays visiting my father’s family in
southern California. My brother Jeb, an avid skier, was looking out the
window of the ragged Ford van my dad’s band used to haul their equipment
around, his profile silhouetted by the reddish glow of high pressure
sodium lights. There was hardly any snow.
“God damn global warming,” he said. I was stunned. I had never heard him swear.
Global warming. I didn’t know what it was,
precisely, but I had heard it mentioned enough times, had collected
enough data somewhere in the back of my mind, that I understood what he
was referring to. But I was 17, and much more concerned with getting
together with my girlfriend after being gone for ten days than how much
snow was on the ground, or why. I believed in peak oil
and thought that would be the first catastrophe that our petroleum
fueled economy would visit upon us. Cars were woven into the very fabric
of American society, especially for a teenage boy growing up in rural
Montana in the latter part of the 20th Century, and there was no reason
to expect we would abandon them.
But still. My brother’s words haunted me. Global warming. He seemed so sure of it.
My brother Jeb is a scientist, and he doesn’t talk much.
When he does, he is usually correct, at least in the sense that he has
his facts straight. Unlike me, he doesn’t draw many conclusions. Once, I
asked him to make a judgement on a matter of ecology, one that he had
been studying for the previous five or so years. His response: “Need
more data.”
As it turned out, he was correct in attributing the lack of
snow to global warming. Not only that, he was referencing a scientific
theory that was already a decade old, at the very least, a
well-documented one that had very little need for ‘more data’. This
wasn’t knowledge I should have had some vague recollection of. It was a
fundamental law of physics underlying the current, past, and future
existence of life on earth.
And yet I still don’t think that global warming is what this is really all about.
(By the way, I don’t call it climate change, and I don’t
think it was a good idea to pivot away from the original term. Climates
change. The issue at hand is that the earth is warming, beyond that
narrow (Overton, for those buzzwordy among us) window for which the
current crop (yes, I did that deliberately) of life forms on earth is
adapted, which will likely cause another ice age
following a brutal period of excessive heat. I don’t know if changing
it was a PR play on the part of the science community or a psyop on the
part of the sequestered energy industry, but, in either case, we should
go back to global warming. And we should repurpose Nancy Reagan’s
infamous ‘Brain on Drugs’ ad in doing so. “This is the Earth. This is the Earth on sequestered energy.”)
There was a time, when we lived as tribes, that, should you
range too far from the group alone, you stood a high likelihood of
encountering another tribe and being either captured or killed. Later,
that fear expanded to include assault by army or boat, culminating in
the threat of a thermonuclear weapon (or precision drone strike)
incinerating you without your ever even knowing it was there.
Somewhere in the middle of all that (right around that
atomic bomb point, in fact), that fear went from being a valid one, to
being absurd.
There is never going to be another global conflagration. I
have said this elsewhere, and you may tire of hearing it, but I will
never tire of saying it. They aren’t my words, I borrow them from Dwight
D. Eisenhower, who presided over the last great war to end all wars. A
cliche, except this time, it really was.
“The only way to win the next world war is to prevent it.”
— Dwight D. Eisenhower at a rally in the Civic Auditorium, Seattle, Washington, October 17, 1956
During World War Two, and certainly throughout every single conflict we engaged in since, we traded with our enemy. What this means, in an economic sense, is that this wasn’t a war that needed fighting.
Fast forward to today, and we are so entangled in a web of
global supply chains and overseas markets that a world war would not
only be unthinkable, but infeasible. Who would ally with and supply
whom, and to what end? And who would fight it?
In times past, we were limited in our knowledge of the
world outside our own by a singular limiting factor, the horizon. We had
notions about what was on the other side of the mountains or the sea,
but the only way to test their validity was to physically move beyond
that horizon. Today, we not only know what is on the other side of the
Pacific Ocean (it’s Asia, in case you were wondering. I just looked on
Google Earth), we can observe it remotely in real time, or at least get
eyewitnesses accounts (the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming —
they should be there in 18 hours or so).
“What we do not
understand, we fear. What we fear, we judge as evil. What we judge as
evil, we attempt to control. What we cannot control … we attack.”
— Author unknown
The thing is, we understand just about everything, at least
about what’s lurking over the hill. Thus, we have nothing to fear,
nothing to control, nothing to attack. The Chinese or Russians have no
more need to fear our attacking them than we do their attacking us.
Again, the preeminent Dwight D. Eisenhower:
I think that people want peace so much that one of these days government had better get out of their way and let them have it.
Which brings us back to global warming. Our concerns about
global warming are as much about the potential for it to shake this
final and tenable peace as they are about its very real physical
dangers. That existential threat — of crop failures or an outbreak of
some virulent pandemic — posed by climate change is real, but the
potential for violent conflict brought on by fears arising from that
threat, aroused or otherwise, even more so.
But does that mean we should arm ourselves and prepare to
defend our shrinking coastlines, flooded crop lands, and drying wells
from hordes of climate refugees fleeing even worse off places? Or better
yet, launch a preemptive strike and rid the world 3 billion CO2 spewing
East Asians? I realize there are voices in the crowd, loud ones, crazy
ones even, that say ‘yes, that, exactly’. But the answer is no.
What we need to do, have to do — what I would argue we
truly long to do — is reach out, despite our fear of the unknown
(because we can never really know what is going on in the minds of
people halfway around the world, even with the technological wizardry of
CNN and the International Space Station at our fingertips), and extend
the olive branch of peace to say, “we understand that we share this
world with you and we want to figure out how we can best do that”.
This, more than anything, is what is driving movements such as Sunrise and Extinction Rebellion
and whatever similar such movements in Russia and cloistered China and
the Muslim world call themselves. The concern isn’t with global warming.
It can’t be; we’ve had 40 years to do something about that and have
done nothing but make it worse. The concern is with missing the
opportunity to finally free ourselves from the fear and distrust and
competition that have so long shackled us and to begin crafting a
collaborative commonwealth that does justice to the magnificent gift
that is planet earth and the existence of life upon it.
The rebellion isn’t about stopping climate change, even
though that has become the latest in its rallying cries. The rebellion
is much older than that, easily dating back to the times of Christ and
Buddha, probably to the very dawn of civilization itself. It is an
expression of our collective desire to move beyond these governments,
these oligarchs, these nationalists, these fascists, these cultural
norms and primeval instincts, to realize our true nature and answer the
call for love and kinship that resounds within us.